
NEW YORK (Reuters) - If Wells Fargo's upbeat first-quarter performance is any sign, Wall Street could rally further next week on any reassuring news from three other big banks due to post quarterly results.
Treasury prices rose Tuesday, pushing yields lower, as weakness in equities stemming from anxiety before first-quarter earnings start made the safety of bonds a bit more attractive.
Two-year note yields (UST2YR) fell 4 basis points, or 0.03%, to 0.90%. Yields move in the opposite direction of prices.
Ten-year note yields (UST10Y) declined 3 basis points to 2.90%.
With little other data or official speeches on the schedule, "the market will likely give equities their due," said RBS Greenwich Capital.
Ten-year note yields also were correcting lower after being oversold to reach above 2.92%, an important technical level, said John Spinello, Treasury strategist at Jefferies & Co., in emailed comments.
Gains were limited as the Treasury plans to sell $6 billion in inflation- indexed 10-year securities, with bids due at 1 p.m. eastern time.
Also up for sale today are $28 billion in 4-week bills (UST1MO) and $25 billion in 1-year bills (UST1YR).
The government will also sell $35 billion in 3-year notes (UST3YR) on Wednesday, followed by $18 billion in 10-year notes on Thursday.
LONDON (Dow Jones) -- The euro-zone economy's record contraction in the final three months of 2008 was even deeper than previously thought, statistics agency Eurostat said Tuesday in its final estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product.
Eurostat revised down its estimate of fourth-quarter activity to show a 1.6% drop in GDP compared to the third quarter. Compared to the final quarter of 2007, GDP fell 1.5%, wider than an earlier estimate of a 1.3% decline.
Economists had largely expected no change in the final estimate.
The euro zone tipped from economic growth into recession during the third quarter of 2008, when data showed that GDP declined by 0.3% for a second consecutive quarter. Two consecutive quarters of lower GDP is an informal but widely used definition of a recession.
Households' final consumption dropped 0.3%, a reversal after a 0.1% rise the previous quarter, Eurostat said. Investments plunged 4% in the final three months of the year, steeper after a 0.7% decline in the third quarter.
Exports plunged 6.1%, also far worse than a 0.2% decline in the previous quarter, Eurostat said. Imports dropped 4.7%, turning lower following a 1.3% increase in the third quarter.
HONG KONG (Dow Jones) -- The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut interest rates by a quarter-point and noted mortgage rates are at historical low levels, marking its clearest signal yet that the interest-rate cycle has bottomed.
The cash rate will fall to 3% effective Wednesday, a 49-year low.
"There has already been a major change in both monetary and fiscal policy in Australia," said Governor Glenn Stevens in a statement published on the Reserve Bank's Web site Tuesday along with the rate decision.
"Market and mortgage rates are at very low levels by historical standards and business loan rates are below recent averages, reducing debt-servicing burdens considerably."
In its previous 14 monthly meetings the Reserve Bank has hiked interest rates twice and reduced them five times. Tuesday's decision brings the cumulative reduction in interest rates since September to 4.25 percentage points.
Stevens noted there were early signs of improvement in the world economy, particularly in China, which ranks as Australia's largest trading partner. He noted it was too early say if recent pick-ups would last.
He also cautioned that near-term assessments of the global economy have been marked downward.
Still, hefty stimulus and monetary policy actions taken around world should be contain the downturn for the rest of this year, he said.
Analysts said the Reserve Bank's rate cut Tuesday would do little to further kick start borrowing or spending and appeared designed more as a public confidence booster.
"Effectively this is just 'window dressing' and is aimed at stabilizing sentiment rather than offering significant support to the economy," SocGen economist Glenn Maguire wrote in a note emailed to reporters Tuesday.
Maguire added that Australia was likely to post flat growth this year, but avoid contraction, making it one of the best performers among industrialized nations.
He added it was clear from the language in Stevens' comments accompanying the rate decision that there was little in the way of future policy cuts under consideration.
"The Bank has given unusually direct guidance that this easing cycle is now over -- or at the very least, monetary policy will be on hold for an extended period," Maguire said.
Doubts about the future direction of policy were clarified in the concluding paragraphs of Stevens' statement.
Stevens jettisoned references that monetary policy settings would be evaluated at coming board meetings.
Instead, Stevens concluded: "The stance of monetary policy, together with the substantial fiscal initiatives, will provide significant support to domestic demand over the period ahead."
According to a Reuters report Sunday, gaming and resort operator MGM Mirage (MGM) has contracted Morgan Stanley to sell several of its casinos, and is already in talks with potential buyers of some of its assets.
According to a source familiar with the matter, the Las Vegas-based company is negotiating deals to sell its casinos outside of Vegas. These properties include MGM Grand Detroit and Biloxi’s Beau Rivage in Mississippi.
MGM has struggled with debt and liquidity issues amid the current economic crisis, and posted a $1.1 billion fourth quarter loss in late March.
On the heels of this report, MGM shares jumped 33% in early afternoon trading Monday.
The Bottom Line
Shares of MGM are way off of all-time highs of $100 hit at the end of 2007. The stock has tripled off near all-time technical lows of $2 per share. If the shares do pull back, we see the $4.50 level as a key area that must hold. We do not currently rate this non-dividend paying stock, but we do follow the stock and casino sector closely.
MGM Mirage (MGM) does not currently pay a dividend.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks, as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here.
A Goldman analyst said that since Cisco has reached the banker’s $18 price target, that Goldman views its “growth expectation as largely priced in.” Goldman added that it maintains a positive long-term view for the company.
Cisco shares fell 93 cents, or -5%, in late Monday trading.
The Bottom Line
The stock has technical support around the $13 level. If that fails to hold, we could see the $9 price point come into play. If the shares can firm up, we see overhead resistance around the $19-21 price levels. We do not currently rate this non-dividend paying stock at this time, but we do monitor the company closely as it is a key technology name.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) does not currently pay a dividend.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks, as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here.
Asian shipping shares slumped Tuesday as a key index for marine freight rates fell to a two-month low, reflecting waning global demand for commodities and an industry trapped with excess capacity because of a harsh cyclical downturn.
With the global economy still in the midst of a slowdown and inventory levels for resources rising, the marine transportation may still be awaiting the worst, say analysts.
Nomura analysts Andrew Lee and Cecilia Chan wrote in a report Tuesday that the worst was yet to come for the bulk shipping industry.
"We expect industry fundamentals to deteriorate further as demand continues to remain weak and the large order book begins to be delivered," they said. "We expect dry bulk freight rates to remain under pressure due to a combination of weak demand, high China iron ore inventory, high China steel inventory and expected delivery of new capacity."
Shares of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MSLOF) dropped 2.4% and in Tokyo trading Tuesday, restricting gains for a broad market that was wavering between gains and losses. Shares of China Cosco Holdings Co. dropped 4.2% and Pacific Basin Shipping sank 6.4% in Hong Kong, while STX Pan Ocean fell 0.9% in Seoul.
The drop in shipping stocks came after the Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping freight rates and is often considered a barometer of world trade, tumbled 1.3% to 1,486 points Monday. That's the benchmark's lowest level since Feb. 4, according to Bloomberg.
At Monday's close, the index is just a shadow of the record high of 11,440 that it hit in May 2008. Since then, the index has been steadily declining, dragging along shipping stocks. Several Asian shipping shares have lost at least 60% in the past 12 months.
Nomura's analysts said they expect the Baltic Dry Index to average 1,666 this year, down about 74% from average prices of last year, and fall a further 15% in 2010, before recovering in 2011.
"We expect dry bulk freight rates to remain under pressure due to a combination of weak demand, high China iron ore inventory, high China steel inventory and expected delivery of new capacity," they wrote.
Meanwhile, the outlook for base metals was also weakening amid rising inventories, with Credit Suisse analysts noting that "aggregate base metal inventories are at record high levels and continue to rise amid weak demand."
Mining giant Rio Tinto said earlier Tuesday that it was slowing the construction of a planned alumina refinery and slash production of bauxite in response to weak demand and prices for alumina and aluminum. "At current prices around 70% of the industry is currently operating at a financial loss," said Rio's Alcan bauxite and alumina President Steve Hodgson. Rio shares tumbled more than 9% in Sydney on the announcement.
Less bearish on container ships
Analysts see the weak global economy impacting the earnings for companies across various segments of shipping, but have been most bearish on the bulk shipping segment. However, some expect companies with a fleet of tankers to perform better.
"We perceive [bulk shippers] as being in the early innings of a multi-year downturn, unless all vessels aged [more than] 20 years are scrapped and at least half of the global dry bulk order-book disappears due to cancellations, lack of funding etc.," Goldman Sachs noted in a recent report.
"Tankers face a tough year ahead, but that could encourage more scrapping of single-hull vessels, which could alleviate the oversupply situation from 2010 onwards," the brokerage added.
Among container shipping stocks, shares of China Shipping Container Lines Co. skidded 7.9% and Orient Overseas (International) lost 1.2% in Hong Kong trading.
In wider-market action, Japan's Nikkei 225 Average fell 0.2% to 8,841.73 after moving in a range around the break-even level and China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.5% as trading resumed after Monday's holiday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.1%, Taiwan's Taiex fell 0.5%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gave up 0.8% and South Korea's Kospi was little changed.
Shares of Wynn Resorts (WYNN) are up nearly 6% in early trading after UBS upgraded the casino company to a buy from a neutral.
The analyst likes the company’s liquidity standpoint with no debt due this year, and the company stands to gain from fewer casino openings in Macau between 2010 and 2012.
The Bottom Line
Shares of WYNN have bounced nearly 100% in the last four weeks, but are still way off of all-time highs of $164 hit in October of 2007. The company has overhead resistance in the $33-36 price area. We would look for the $23-25 price zone on any pullbacks. We do not currently rate this non-dividend stock, but we do watch the shares closely.
The Bottom Line
Shares of Wynn Resorts (WYNN) do not currently pay a dividend.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks, as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here.